Venture Capital True Return Calculator
Evaluate venture fund cash flows, realized and unrealized value, concentration risk, NAV sensitivity, public-market-equivalent performance, and statistical evidence in paired periodic venture and benchmark returns.
1. Venture fund investor cash flows
Negative for contributions, calls, fees, and expenses. Positive for distributions. Enter remaining NAV separately.
| Date | Type | Cash flow | Benchmark index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2. Residual value and venture risk inputs
3. Paired periodic returns for Luck vs Skill analysis
Enter comparable periodic returns for the venture-capital series and benchmark. Use the same periods and return basis. The paired t-test requires at least 3 complete observations. More observations generally provide a more informative estimate.
| Period | Venture Capital return (%) | Benchmark return (%) | Excess return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00% |
Methodology: This section uses a two-sided paired-sample t-test on periodic excess returns. It does not calculate a valid t-statistic from a single fund IRR or KS-PME observation. The score is an educational evidence indicator, not proof of skill or a forecast. Venture returns may be highly skewed, concentrated, stale, smoothed, or based on few observations, which can weaken conventional t-test assumptions.
4. NAV stress test
| NAV haircut | Adjusted NAV | Net XIRR | TVPI |
|---|