Venture Capital True Return Calculator

Evaluate venture fund cash flows, realized and unrealized value, concentration risk, NAV sensitivity, public-market-equivalent performance, and statistical evidence in paired periodic venture and benchmark returns.

1. Venture fund investor cash flows

Negative for contributions, calls, fees, and expenses. Positive for distributions. Enter remaining NAV separately.

Date	Type	Cash flow	Benchmark index

2. Residual value and venture risk inputs

Valuation date

Remaining NAV

Benchmark preset

Ending benchmark index

Commitment

Headline gross IRR (%)

Reported net IRR (%)

Largest portfolio company (% of NAV)

Top 5 companies (% of NAV)

3. Paired periodic returns for Luck vs Skill analysis

Enter comparable periodic returns for the venture-capital series and benchmark. Use the same periods and return basis. The paired t-test requires at least 3 complete observations. More observations generally provide a more informative estimate.

Period	Venture Capital return (%)	Benchmark return (%)	Excess return
			0.00%

Methodology: This section uses a two-sided paired-sample t-test on periodic excess returns. It does not calculate a valid t-statistic from a single fund IRR or KS-PME observation. The score is an educational evidence indicator, not proof of skill or a forecast. Venture returns may be highly skewed, concentrated, stale, smoothed, or based on few observations, which can weaken conventional t-test assumptions.

4. NAV stress test

NAV haircut	Adjusted NAV	Net XIRR	TVPI

Educational use only. This calculator does not provide investment, tax, accounting, valuation, statistical, or legal advice. Results depend on data quality, valuation assumptions, benchInformation and interactive calculators are made available as educational and self-help tools for your independent use and are not intended to provide investment, tax, accounting, valuation, statistical, legal, or financial planning advice. Results depend on the accuracy of the data entered and the assumptions, benchmarks, valuation methods, and analytical models selected. All examples and outputs are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Calculated performance measures, statistical analyses, and "Luck vs Skill" results do not establish manager skill, future performance, or investment merit. We cannot guarantee the accuracy or applicability of these results to your individual circumstances. Please consult qualified professionals before making financial or investment decisions.mark selection, periodicity, independence, and model assumptions.

Venture Capital Performance Glossary

Definitions, formulas, statistical cautions, and interpretation

Performance

XIRR

Extended Internal Rate of Return

The discount rate that sets the net present value of dated investor cash flows, including ending NAV, to zero.

Formula:Σ CFᵢ/(1+r)^((dateᵢ-date₀)/365)=0

Caution: Cash-flow patterns can produce multiple mathematical roots.

DPI

Distributed to Paid-In Capital

Measures realized cash returned to investors.

Formula:DPI = Distributions ÷ Paid-In Capital

Caution: Relative DPI versus a benchmark is not the fund’s absolute DPI.

RVPI

Residual Value to Paid-In Capital

Measures value still held rather than distributed.

Formula:RVPI = NAV ÷ Paid-In Capital

Caution: Depends on valuation estimates.

TVPI

Total Value to Paid-In Capital

Combines realized distributions and residual NAV.

Formula:TVPI = DPI + RVPI

Caution: Review how much is unrealized.

Unrealized Share

The percentage of a fund's total value that remains invested and has not yet been distributed to investors.

Formula:Unrealized Share = RVPI ÷ TVPI

Caution: Relies on current NAV estimates of remaining investments

Benchmark

KS-PME

Kaplan-Schoar Public Market Equivalent

Compounds contributions and distributions using a selected index and includes ending NAV.

Formula:KS-PME = (FV distributions + NAV) ÷ FV contributions

Caution: Benchmark selection and consistent total-return index data matter.

Public Market Benchmark

A consistent total-return series paired with the relevant dates or periods.

Caution: Use the same benchmark methodology throughout.

Valuation

NAV

Net Asset Value

Value assigned to remaining assets net of applicable liabilities.

Caution: NAV is not distributed cash.

NAV Haircut

Net Asset Value Haircut

A scenario adjustment used to recalculate XIRR and TVPI.

Formula:Adjusted NAV = NAV × (1 − haircut)

Caution: A large change indicates dependence on unrealized value.

Capital

Commitment

Capital Commitment

The contractual amount available to be called by the fund.

Caution: Different from capital actually paid in.

Statistics

Excess Return

Periodic Excess Return

The paired difference used in the statistical test.

Formula:Excessᵢ = PEᵢ − Benchmarkᵢ

Caution: Periods and return bases must be comparable.

Tracking Error

Sample Standard Deviation of Excess Returns

This calculator uses the sample standard deviation of the observed excess-return series.

Formula:s = √[Σ(dᵢ−d̄)²/(n−1)]

Caution: Small samples produce uncertain estimates.

T-Statistic

Paired-Sample T-Statistic

Tests the null hypothesis that mean periodic excess return equals zero.

Formula:t = d̄ ÷ (s/√n)

Caution: Interpretation depends on test assumptions and degrees of freedom.

P-Value

Two-Sided P-Value

This calculator reports a two-sided Student t p-value for the paired test.

Caution: It is not the probability that skill is absent or that the result occurred “by chance.”

Information Ratio

Active return per unit of observed active risk for the entered periodicity.

Formula:IR = d̄ ÷ s

Caution: Not annualized here.

Luck vs Skill Score

Educational Evidence Score

When mean excess return is positive, Score = round[100 × (1 − p)]. When mean excess return is zero or negative, the score is 0. It summarizes evidence in the supplied paired sample only.

Formula:Positive excess: 100 × (1 − p); otherwise 0

Caution: Not a validated industry standard, proof of skill, ranking, forecast, or recommendation.

Venture Capital

MOIC

Multiple on Invested Capital

In this investor-level calculator, MOIC equals distributions plus remaining NAV divided by paid-in capital. It is numerically equivalent to TVPI when both use the same net inputs.

Formula:MOIC = (Distributions + NAV) ÷ Paid-In Capital

Caution: MOIC does not account for timing and may depend heavily on unrealized NAV.

Realization Ratio

Compares DPI with TVPI to show how much total value has been returned rather than remaining in NAV.

Formula:Realization Ratio = DPI ÷ TVPI

Caution: A low ratio indicates that reported value is primarily unrealized.

TVPI Quality

TVPI Quality Indicator

Low means less than 25% of reported total value is realized; Moderate means 25% to less than 50%; High means 50% or more.

Caution: This is an educational indicator, not an industry standard or prediction of ultimate outcomes.

Largest Position Concentration

Largest Portfolio Company Concentration

Shows how much residual value depends on one company.

Caution: Use a consistent valuation date and verify the input against fund reporting.

Top 5 Concentration

Top Five Portfolio Company Concentration

Shows how concentrated residual value is among a small number of companies.

Caution: Concentration can amplify both gains and losses.

NAV Concentration Risk

Educational Concentration Risk Indicator

Low: largest below 15% and top five below 40%. Moderate: largest 15%–24.99% or top five 40%–59.99%. High: largest 25%–39.99% or top five 60%–74.99%. Very High: largest at least 40% or top five at least 75%.

Caution: Suggested educational thresholds, not a validated industry standard.

Venture Benchmark

Venture Benchmark Preset

The preset records the intended comparison series; users must still enter consistent total-return index levels for every cash flow and the valuation date.

Caution: Benchmark choice can materially affect PME results.

Venture Return Distribution

Venture Capital Return Distribution

A conventional t-test may be less informative when observations are few, dependent, stale, smoothed, or highly non-normal.

Caution: Review the complete distribution and do not treat the t-test as proof of skill.

Menu

Venture Capital True Return Calculator

1. Venture fund investor cash flows

2. Residual value and venture risk inputs

3. Paired periodic returns for Luck vs Skill analysis

4. NAV stress test i

4. NAV stress test