Understand Uncertainty: Part 2

Thursday, October 17, 2019 580 views

In Part Two of our Understand Uncertainty series, Mark illustrates the random walk of market returns using the Hebner Model and the Galton Board.

See Part One of Understand Uncertainty here.

The Random Walk of Market Returns Disclosures

The Hebner Model: A Framework for How Markets Work. The Index Portfolio 100 red bars only includes 3 standard deviations from the average. Over 600 months, there were 7 monthly returns beyond 3 standard deviations ranging from -23% to 23%, with 4 monthly returns in the left tail and 3 in the right. For HYPOTHETICAL back-tested performance data shown in this chart, see ifabt.com. IFA Index Portfolios are labeled with numbers that refer to the percentage of stock indexes in the asset allocation, as opposed to the allocation of bond indexes. For example, an IFA Index Portfolio 90 is 90% IFA stock indexes and 10% IFA bond indexes. For more, go to indexdescriptions.com. The HYPOTHETICAL back-tested performance of the IFA Index Portfolios was achieved with the benefit of hindsight; it does not represent actual investment strategies for the entire period; and it does not reflect the impact that economic and market factors may have had on the advisor's decision making if the advisor were actually managing client money during the period shown. The performance of index portfolios does reflect the maximum annual advisory fee of 0.9%. IFA Index Portfolios do reflect the deduction of mutual fund fees, include reinvestment of dividends, capital gains, and includes the deduction of IFA advisory fees, but does not include transaction costs or taxes, which if included, would lower performance. The IFA Index Portfolios were created by IFA in 2000. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data, including performance data, is provided for illustrative purposes only, it does not represent actual performance of any client portfolio or account and it should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. IFA utilizes "standard deviation" as a quantification of risk, see the definition of "standard deviation" in the IFA glossary.


GENERAL DISCLOSURES:

All videos are being provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product or service, or considered to be investment or tax advice. There is no guarantee any investment strategies will be successful.  Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. No investment decisions should be made solely based on the information in any of these videos.  The opinions referenced within are as of the date of each video recording and are subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources is not endorsed or guaranteed by IFA. Please be sure to use the pause button to fully read the important disclosures at the end of each video.

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