Step 4: Time Pickers in Under a Minute

Monday, October 4, 2021 622 views

Mark Hebner explains how time pickers, also known as market timers, mistakenly believe they can predict the future of the stock market. Such decisions are based on the fallacy that the direction of future prices can be predicted. An investor can only know the current price and past prices. Market timers don't understand that the market continuously sets prices in response to news, and that news is random and unpredictable. In a study titled, "Likely Gains from Market Timing," Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must have an accuracy of their forecast that exceeds 74% to outperform the market.


All videos are being provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product or service, or considered to be investment or tax advice. There is no guarantee any investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. No investment decisions should be made solely based on the information in any of these videos. The opinions referenced within are as of the date of each video recording and are subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources is not endorsed or guaranteed by IFA. Where hypothetical back-tested performance is presented, please be sure to use the pause button at the end of the video to fully read the important disclosures including disclosures related to the use of this data. When charts and tables are used in this video, many may be viewed at a Video Resource section above.

time pickersstep 4time pickingmark hebner12-stepmarket timing step 4: time pickers in under a minute