Election Year Patterns: An Impact on Markets? - Show 43-2

Tuesday, August 7, 2012 3,773 views

Our human nature causes us to search for patterns in the face of randomness and unpredictability. Mark and Tom take a look at the history of election cycles to see if these cycles cause patterns in the market. Many election theories exist, the most common stating that the market is weak in post-election year and performs best in years 3 and 4 of the election cycle. Through a series of charts, Mark shows how this pattern is not statistically significant and cannot be relied upon for predicting the performance of the market. The message remains the same: the market is random, so you may want to be cautious in using politics or anything in the news for market predictions.

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