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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?


Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Year Printed: 2006

Edition: New Ed

Printing: Sixth

Condition: Fair

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Pages: 352

Height: 9.2 inches

Width: 6.1 inches

Notes: The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.