Size2

The Myth of a Declining Size Premium

Size2

The so-called size premium, where stocks of smaller companies perform better than larger rivals over time, is again being questioned.

In the past five years, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index had gained an average annualized 12.8%, as of mid-June, according to Morningstar. By contrast, the blue-chip S&P 500 Index had returned 13.7%.

But such an uptick has been highly uneven. It also comes as longer-term average annualized data show small caps still coming out ahead.

"Any subset of the data, such as five years' worth of data, is bound to contain significant errors in its attempt to describe the risk and return of an index," wrote Mark Hebner in his classic book on index funds.

Given evidence uncovered by academic luminaries such as Eugene Fama and Kenneth French showing a long-term premium for owning small-cap stocks, we've decided to update a chart that appeared in earlier versions of "Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors."

The refreshed graphic (see below) captures total cumulative returns of small cap stocks. But instead of simply comparing large caps to small caps, our analysis takes a more granular view. A wealth of research by Fama and French, among others, finds that the size premium exists even within small-cap stocks. 

In the graphic below, we've replicated IFA's research process from 2007 by breaking the US market into 10 distinct categories, or deciles, according to market-cap size and the S&P 500 for comparison.

As depicted here, the "largest" decile of stocks is pictured on the far-left side and labeled as the "first" decile. At the other end of the spectrum is the "10th" decile, or the smallest market cap.

Notice the wide swings that can take place during shorter timeframes. Then again, we've framed such slices of market history against a much broader data set (1927-2017). Against such a comprehensive 90-year backdrop, the importance of exposing a portfolio to the size factor becomes quite evident.

History of the size effect

This is consistent with a wave of academic research going back to 1981 when Northwestern University's Rolf Banz formally identified that a size premium existed. It's worth noting, however, that his original paper points out that the effect "is also not very stable through time." Banz concludes that his analysis shows "substantial differences in the magnitude of the coefficient of the size factor."

So how can investors construct robust strategic portfolios that recognize a size premium does exist, but can be quite elastic?

Exposure to small caps can vary within different funds and indexes. For example, the Vanguard Small Cap Value Index fund is listed by Morningstar with more than twice the average market-cap size of the DFA U.S Small Cap Value Portfolio: $3.8 billion vs. $1.7 billion.

Such a stark contrast in two seemingly similar small-cap funds can make a huge difference in terms of capturing the full brunt of the size premium.

In markets where size might become less definitive in terms of returns, research also indicates that designer indexes slanting away from growthier names with less profitability can greatly enhance small-cap performance. (See table below.)

Size Factor Overview
(1975-2017)
  Market (Top 3,400) Large Caps All SmallCaps Small Growth Low Prof Small Caps ex Small Growth Low Prof
Annualized Compound Return 12.58 12.31 14.53 5.11 15.76
Annualized Standard Deviation 15.13 14.9 19.59 28.49 18.68
Annualized Premium (vs Large Caps) -- -- 2.22 -- 3.44
Annualized Tracking Error -- -- 9.93 -- 9.29
Average Monthly Return 1.09 1.07 1.3 0.76 1.37
T-stat of average return difference vs large caps -- -- 1.85 -- 2.62
Average Number of Names 3,383 906 2,477 382 2,095
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors. Results shown are hypothetical. Filters were applied to data retroactively with the benefit of hindsight. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information presented is provided in good faith without any warranty and is intended for background information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation or an offer of any services or products for sale and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss.

In a 2018 research report by Dimensional Fund Advisors, analysts Kaitlin Simpson and Wei Dai found domestic small caps as a group produced an annual compound return of 14.53% from 1975 through 2017.

Meanwhile, small-cap growth stocks with relatively low profitability metrics generated 5.11%. Also, annual standard deviation, a measure of volatility, was appreciably higher for this corner of the small-cap market.

Perhaps more revealing is that in benchmarking all styles of small caps, the study's authors found a major performance boost from investing in smaller companies while avoiding growthier names with low profitability.

On an annual compound return basis over the period studied, gains shot up to 15.76%. At the same time, overall portfolio risk (as measured by standard deviation) fell by almost a full percentage point.

The upshot: such a tilt bumped the size premium against portfolios heavy in large-cap stocks from 2.22% to 3.44% on an annualized basis. It also had a strongly positive impact on the t-statistic, which measures the probability that outperformance of small caps versus large caps could have occurred from chance alone.

The DFA study, which looked at the top 3,400 stocks in the U.S. market, found a T-stat of average return difference between small caps and large caps of 1.85.

In general, a positive alpha with a T-stat greater than 2 indicates a 2.5% or lower probability that the excess returns are due to luck.

Minus smaller growth stocks with low profitability, however, the T-stat spurts to 2.62. This gives us further evidence that passively managed portfolios seizing on both the size premium and profitability factors can generate higher returns, net of fees, over time for investors.


This is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product or service. There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Performance may contain both live and back-tested data. Data is provided for illustrative purposes only, it does not represent actual performance of any client portfolio or account and it should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. IFA Index Portfolios are recommended based on time horizon and risk tolerance. Take the IFA Risk Capacity Survey (www.ifa.com/survey) to determine which portfolio captures the right mix of stock and bond funds best suited to you. For more information about Index Fund Advisors, Inc, please review our brochure at https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/ or visit www.ifa.com.