Monkey Throwing Darts

No Better Than a Blindfolded Monkey – A Devastating Conclusion

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Monkey Throwing Darts
A Devastating Conclusion
A Devastating Conclusion

The main purpose of the financial research industry is to try to predict the future course of events since that is the only thing that will drive future stock prices. This would be the equivalent of making blind guesses.

If thousands of highly intelligent, sophisticated analysts with degrees from top universities and access to the best computing power available can’t predict the future, what use are they? How can one company or research analyst have more knowledge than another without it being inside information, which would be illegal?

Economist and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel, puts it well, “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.”