CLIENT LOGINWEB MEETING
  • Overview
    • Figure and Chart Index
    • The 12-Step Overview
    • About the Author
    • Preface
    • Short Book on Investing
    • Intro Print Version [PDF]
    • PowerPoint [PDF]
    • Art Gallery
    • FAQ
    • IFA Store
    • Buy the Book
    • Backtested Disclosures
  • Step 1
    • Active Investors
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 1.1 Introduction
    • 1.2 Definitions
      • 1.2.1 Active Investors
      • 1.2.2 Index Funds Investors
      • 1.2.3 Beating the Market
      • 1.2.4 Risk Measurements
    • 1.3 Problems
      • 1.3.1 Active Investors are Everywhere
      • 1.3.2 Active Investors are Gamblers
      • 1.3.3 Active Investors Lose
      • 1.3.4 The Poor Accounting of Active Investors
      • 1.3.5 Stock Market Prices are Random
      • 1.3.6 Stock Markets are Efficient
      • 1.3.7 When Risk Capacity is not Matched with Risk Exposure
      • 1.3.8 The High Cost of Turnover
      • 1.3.9 The Emotional Stress of Active Investing
      • 1.3.10 More than 1,500 Investors can be Wrong
    • 1.4 Solutions
      • 1.4 1.Active Investors Anonymous
      • 1.4.2 The History of 12-Step Recovery Programs
      • 1.4.3 The Big Book of Investing
      • 1.4.4 Top Investors Agree
      • 1.4.5 Index Funds Investors Win
    • 1.5 Summary
    • 1.6 Review Questions
    • Print Version [PDF]
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  • Step 2
    • Nobel Laureates
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 2.1 Introduction
    • 2.2 Definitions
      • 2.2.1 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences
      • 2.2.2 The University of Chicago, Center for Research
        in Security Prices, and the Stock Market Database
    • 2.3 Problems
      • 2.3.1 Investors Rely on Lady Luck
      • 2.3.2 Active Investors are Unaware of Academic Studies
    • 2.4 Solutions
      • Nobel Laureates and Academics
      • Alfred Nobel
      • Blaise Pascal
      • Edmund Halley
      • Adam Smith
      • Louis Bachelier
      • Alfred Cowles
      • Harry Markowitz
      • James Tobin
      • Frank Modigliani
      • Merton Miller
      • William Sharpe
      • Paul Samuelson
      • Eugene Fama
      • Michael Jensen
      • Rex Sinquefield
      • Burton Malkiel
      • John Bogle
      • David Booth
      • Kenneth French
      • Who Should You Trust?
      • Market Forces
      • 2.5 Summary
      • 2.6 Review Questions
      • Print Version [PDF]
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  • Step 3
    • Stock Pickers
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
      • Page 4
    • Quotes
    • 3.1 Introduction
    • 3.2 Definitions
      • 3.2.1 Stock Pickers
      • 3.2.2 Adjusted Performance
    • 3.3 Problems
      • 3.3.1 Why Stock Pickers Fail
      • 3.3.2 The Stock Picker’s Graveyard
      • 3.3.3 Incubator Funds
      • 3.3.4 Studies and Observations that Show the Daunting Odds of Stock Picking
      • 3.3.5 Stock Pickers and Coin Flippers
      • 3.3.6 Stock Pickers are Focused on Short Term
      • 3.3.7 Stock Pickers are Style Drifters
      • 3.3.8 Stock Pickers are Looking for a Needle in a Haystack
      • 3.3.9 Stock Pickers Play a Zero Sum Game
      • 3.3.10 Stock Pickers in International Markets
      • 3.3.11 Stock Pickers in Small-Cap Markets
      • 3.3.12 Stock Pickers Pay More Taxes
      • 3.3.13 Stock Picking Gurus and Their Real Records
      • 3.3.14 Stock Pickers Don’t Want You to Know the Truth
    • 3.4 Solutions
    • 3.5 Summary
    • 3.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 4
    • Time Pickers
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 4.1 Introduction
    • 4.2 Definitions
      • 4.2.1 Random Walk Theory
      • 4.2.2 Efficient Market Hypothesis
    • 4.3 Problems
      • 4.3.1 Pickers are Fooled by Randomness
      • 4.3.2 Academic Studies Prove that Time Picking doesn’t Work
      • 4.3.3 Time Picking Gurus
      • 4.3.4 Gains and Losses are Impossible to Identify in Advance
      • 4.3.5 Time Pickers Pay More Taxes
    • 4.4 Solutions
    • 4.5 Summary
    • 4.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 5
    • Manager Pickers
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 5.1 Introduction
    • 5.2 Definitions
    • 5.3 Problems
      • 5.3.1 Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results
      • 5.3.2 Persistence in Track Records
      • 5.3.3 Sources of Information Used by Manager Pickers
      • Are Highly Rated Funds Good Thing?
      • The Forbes Mutual Fund Honor Roll
      • Mutual Fund Advertisements
      • 5.3.4 Markets Make Managers
      • 5.3.5 Irrelevant Benchmarks
    • 5.4 Solutions
    • 5.5 Summary
    • 5.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 6
    • Style Drifters
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
    • Quotes
    • 6.1 Introduction
    • 6.2 Definitions
      • 6.2.1 Investment Style
      • 6.2.2 Style Drift
    • 6.3 Problems
      • 6.3.1 Style Drift Alters Risk Exposure
      • 6.3.2 Style Drifters
      • 6.3.3 Style Drift and the Fama/French Risk Factors
        Style Picking
    • 6.4 Solution
    • 6.5 Summary
    • 6.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 7
    • Silent Partners
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 7.1 Introduction
    • 7.2 Definitions
    • 7.3 Problems
      • 7.3.1 Active Investors are Unaware of All the Costs
      • 7.3.2 Taxes
      • 7.3.3 Inflation
    • 7.4 Solutions
      • 7.4.1 Index Funds and Tax-Managed Index Funds
      • 7.4.2 Reduce Taxes and Turnover Costs with Index Funds
    • 7.5 Summary
    • 7.6 Review Questions
    • Print Version [PDF]
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  • Step 8
    • Riskese
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
      • Page 4
      • Page 5
    • Quotes
    • 8.1 Introduction
    • 8.2 Definitions
      • 8.2.1 Standard Deviation
      • 8.2.2 Probability Distributions and Histograms
      • 8.2.3 Mean Reversion
      • 8.2.4 Expected Return
      • 8.2.5 Rolling Period Returns
      • 8.2.6 Risk
      • 8.2.7 The Dimensions of Stock Return
      • 8.2.8 Implications of the Fama/French Three-Factor Model
      • 8.2.9 Time Diversification of Risk
    • 8.3 Problems
      • 8.3.1 Active Investors don’t Understand Risk and Return
      • 8.3.2 Investors Like Comfort and Dislike Uncertainty
      • 8.3.3 Stock Pickers Dilute the Two Important Risk Factors
      • 8.3.4 The Myth of the Ideal Investment
    • 8.4 Solutions
    • 8.5 Summary
    • 8.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 9
    • History
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 9.1 Introduction
    • 9.2 Definitions
      • 9.2.1 Historical Databases and Studies
      • 9.2.2 Time Series Construction
    • 9.3 Problems
    • 9.4 Solutions
      • 9.4.1 Long-term History Characterizes Risk and Return
      • 9.4.2 Cross Correlation among Indexes
      • A Comparative History of Several Indexes
        using Rolling Periods
      • A Comparative History of Market Cap Deciles
      • The Returns Matrix
    • 9.5 Summary
    • 9.6 Review Questions
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  • Step 10
    • Risk Capacity
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
    • Quotes
    • 10.1 Introduction
    • 10.2 Definitions
      • Dimension One: Time Horizon and Liquidity Needs
      • Dimension Two: Attitude Toward Risk
      • Dimension Three: Net Worth
      • Dimension Four: Income and Savings Rate
      • Dimension Five: Investment Knowledge
    • 10.3 Problems
      • 10.3.1 Investors do not Properly Assess Risk Capacity
      • 10.3.2 Risk Capacity Changes over Time
    • 10.4 Solutions
      • 10.4.1 The Risk Capacity Survey
      • 10.4.2 The Ten Dimensions of Risk
      • 10.4.3 The Color of Risk Spectrum
      • 10.4.4 Twenty Risk Capacities
      • 10.4.5 Capacity Adjusted Risk
    • 10.5 Summary
    • 10.6 Review Questions
    • Print Version [PDF]
    • Risk Capacity Survey
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  • Step 11
    • Risk Exposure
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
      • Page 3
      • Page 4
      • Page 5
      • Page 6
    • Quotes
    • 11.1 Introduction
    • 11.2 Definitions
      • 11.2.1 Modern Portfolio Theory
      • 11.2.2 Diversification
      • 11.2.3 Global Diversification
      • 11.2.4 Portfolio Rebalancing
      • 11.2.5 Whole Portfolios
      • 11.2.6 The Prudent Investor Act
      • Five Principles of Prudence
    • 11.3 Problems
      • 11.3.1 How Much Risk is There?
      • 11.3.2 Where is the Data?
      • 11.3.3 Investors Want to Avoid Risk
      • 11.3.4 Risk is Good in Proper Doses
      • 11.3.5 Portfolios Get Out of Balance
      • 11.3.6 Selecting Index Funds
    • 11.4 Solutions
      • 11.4.1 Twenty Index Portfolios
      • 11.4.2 Index Mutual Funds Earn more Return and Eliminate more Risk
      • 11.4.3 The Most Efficient Funds on the Market
      • 11.4.4 Are Commodities Worth the Risk?
      • Small Cap Strategy
      • U.S. Small-Cap Strategy
      • U.S. Micro-Cap Strategy
      • Value Strategies
      • U.S. Small-Cap Value Strategy
      • U.S. Large-Cap Value Strategy
      • Real Estate Securities Strategy
      • U.S. Large Company Strategy
      • Developed International Markets
      • Emerging Markets
      • Fixed Income
      • 11.4.4 Matching People with Portfolios
    • Index Portfolios
      • Portfolio 100 - Bright Red
      • Portfolio  95 - Yellow
      • Portfolio  90 - Gold
      • Portfolio  85 - Orange
      • Portfolio  80 - Purple
      • Portfolio  75 - Dark Blue
      • Portfolio  70 - Dark Teal
      • Portfolio  65 - Dark Green
      • Portfolio  60 - Green
      • Portfolio  55 - Olive
      • Portfolio  50 - Sea Green
      • Portfolio  45 - Teal
      • Portfolio  40 - Aqua
      • Portfolio  35 - Sky Blue
      • Portfolio  30 - Pale Blue
      • Portfolio  25 - Ice Blue
      • Portfolio  20 - Light Turquoise
      • Portfolio  15 - Light Green
      • Portfolio  10 - Light Yellow
      • Portfolio   5 - Ivory
      • Data Sources
      • Asset Class Time Series
    • 11.5 Summary
    • 11.6 Review Questions
    • Print Version [PDF]
    • Returns Calculator
    • Portfolio Simulator
    • Comparison Charts
    • Backtested Performance Data
    • IFA Indexes
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    • Backtested Disclosures
  • Step 12
    • Invest and Relax
    • Pages
      • Page 1
      • Page 2
    • Quotes
    • 12.1 Introduction
    • 12.2 Definitions
      • 12.2.1 Registered Investment Advisers
      • 12.2.2 Dimensional Fund Advisors
      • 12.2.3 Rebalancing Portfolios
      • 12.2.4 Rebalancing Formula
      • 12.2.5 Tax Loss Harvesting
      • 12.2.6 Financial Advice
    • 12.3 Problems
      • 12.3.1 Active Investors Procrastinate
      • 12.3.2 Active Investors "Go It Alone"
      • 12.3.3 The Media Wants Investors to Worry
      • Invest in Index Mutual Funds
      • Asset Allocation
      • Minimization of Investment Costs
      • Minimization of Taxes
      • Reliable Investment Performance
      • A Simple and Understandable Investment Strategy
      • An Easier Way to Track Investment Performance
      • Increased Leverage and Compounding
        of Investment Wealth
      • Invest like Institutional Investors
    • 12.4 Solutions
    • 12.5 Summary
    • 12.6 Review Questions
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