Paul Samuelson

Farewell to the Eminent Economist

Paul Samuelson (1915-2009)

Recently, on December 13, 2009, we lost one of the great economic minds of the past century in Paul Samuelson.  As America’s first Nobel Prize winner in economics in 1970, he revolutionized economic theory with his textbook Economics in 1948.  While Samuelson was first beginning to formulate his theories on market behavior, he stumbled upon the thesis of Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician who is credited as the first man to write a paper using advanced mathematics to study finance.  It was these theories and formulas that stirred Samuelson’s passion for using mathematics in investing at a time when recklessly playing the stock market was en vogue. 
 
Samuelson theorized the best estimate of the true value of a security is the price set in the marketplace during every minute of every trading day.  This assertion relies on the wisdom of the many rather than the wisdom of the few, or in some cases the wisdom of one.  What does this mean?  It means the investment advisor that tells you he has some stock picks that are ready to jump through the roof is merely guessing.  With all the information readily available regarding companies in today’s digital age, there are thousands upon thousands of investors combing through copious amounts of news.  With thousands of people armed with the same information, the stock price you see on the board has all the information built into its worth.  From the Wall Street Fat Cats to the ancillary characters trading from home in their bathrobes, they all contribute to the consumption of news and incorporation of it back into the price of a stock.

Samuelson once said, "Investing should be dull, like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. It is not easy to get rich in Las Vegas, at Churchill Downs, or at the local Merrill Lynch office."  Listening to an investor guess as it pertains to certain stocks is no different than playing roulette at the Bellagio.  Because of Samuelson’s belief that the stock is more or less at its fair value due to our free market, your chances of it going up or down are not much different than betting on red or black. 

It was on Samuelson’s leading and groundbreaking principles that index fund investment strategies began to take shape. He was an iconic leader of the indexing revolution that has led to the groundswell of institutional index investing.  Investors across the globe have Paul Samuelson to thank for teaching us all that, rather than betting on the wisdom of the few, we should rely on the knowledge of the masses and invest in a capitalism-driven market that has been giving risk-adjusted returns of about 10% for the past 80 years.  

Click here to read more of Paul Samuelson's work on Market Theory and his contribution to Investing.

Samuelson's Interview on Random Walk Theory

 
Samuelson on Bachelier
Samuelson on Bachelier 2
Source: The Trillion Dollar Bet

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