On average, about
100% of portfolio return level is explained by the index funds
allocation. (see 1, 2) -
STOCK MARKETS ARE RANDOM AND EFFICIENT (please
read the links.)
How and Why Free Markets Work:
Stock
markets throughout the globe have a history of rewarding investors
for the capital they supply to those who engage in capitalism
(about 9% per year over 83 years, with a Std. Dev. of 20%).
Companies, inclusive of their shareholders, compete with
each other for liquidity and investment capital, and millions
of investors compete with each other to find
the most attractive returns. This competition quickly
drives prices to fair value, ensuring
that no investor can expect greater returns without bearing
greater risk. This means that returns are the result
of risk compensation and not the result of price
speculation. Market prices were meant to be free, not managed. Risk
is all you can manage. Returns from price changes are
random and therefore not predictable or manageable in the near
term. In diversified portfolios, over the long term (about
10 years), investors are appropriately rewarded for the risks
they take. This is due to the time diversification of short term
returns. Invest in risk-appropriate investments and relax. Capitalism
Incorporated is the ultimate investment for your capital.
(More on How
the Market Works) |